A Market on the Brink: Shock of November 2025

The U.S. stock market is in the midst of a violent and sudden convulsion. On November 13, 2025, major indices are plummeting, reversing a period of record-setting euphoria with alarming speed. This is not a random fluctuation. It is the crystallization of a perfect storm, a confluence of three powerful and distinct forces striking the market simultaneously.

First, the market is facing a long-overdue valuation reckoning. The “dream run” to record highs in October was dangerously thin, driven by a handful of mega-capitalization technology stocks. This narrow leadership, which masked deteriorating health in the broader market, is now collapsing under the weight of its own stretched valuations.

Second, the market has been plunged into a “data fog,” a self-inflicted information crisis. The conclusion of the record 43-day government shutdown has, perversely, uncorked extreme volatility. Federal agencies failed to collect crucial October data on jobs and inflation, leaving the market “flying blind” and rendering the data-dependent Federal Reserve effectively paralyzed, just when investors fear a recession is taking hold.

Third, a powerful bearish narrative is acting as a psychological accelerant. Famed investor Michael Burry, of “The Big Short” renown, has launched a three-pronged assault on market confidence. This includes not only bearish bets against AI darlings and explosive public accusations of “accounting fraud” against the tech giants that powered the rally , but his ultimate act: terminating his fund’s SEC registration and declaring that his “estimation of value… is not… in sync with the markets”.

This report deconstructs these three forces. The current sell-off is a major correction in its nascent stages, driven by a rational, acute, and terrifying new focus on recession. The information blackout has made answering the recession question impossible, while the only available private-sector data points to a sharp and immediate economic contraction, with 2025 layoff announcements now “on par with 2008 and 2009 job cuts during the Great Recession”. The market is now being forced to price in a worst-case scenario.

The Anatomy of a Reversal: From Record Highs to Rout

The sell-off on November 13, 2025, is severe, erasing weeks of gains and decisively breaking the market’s bullish structure. This decline is not a “dip” but a violent rejection of the market’s recent peak, revealing a deep instability that was building for months.

1.1 The November 13 Sell-Off: A “Wobbly Week” Becomes a Rout

As of midday trading, the losses are broad and deep, led by the very technology stocks that had recently propelled the market to new heights.

The Nasdaq Composite, the proxy for the market’s high-growth ambitions, is leading the losses, plunging between 1.7% and 2.0%.
The benchmark S&P 500 has fallen sharply, down between 1.1% and 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shed its recent gains, falling between 0.8% and 1.0%, or more than 382 points.

What makes this decline so jarring is its immediacy. It comes just one day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new intraday high and closed above 48,000 for the first time in history. The S&P 500, which has gained 16.4% year-to-date , set its own all-time high of 6921.75 in October , capping what many called a “dream run”.

This abrupt reversal from a euphoric peak is a classic “bull trap,” a technical scenario where a new high fails to find buyers and instead triggers a wave of selling. This “wobbly week” is now on track to break a three-week winning streak for all major indices, signaling a significant and negative shift in market character.

1.2 The “Magnificent” Collapse: Tech Superstars Lead the Plunge

This is, unequivocally, a technology-led rout. The “Magnificent Seven” and other AI-related “darlings” that were responsible for the vast majority of the 2025 rally are now the heaviest weights on the market. Investors are engaging in widespread “profit taking” and aggressively re-evaluating the lofty valuations that have defined the AI boom.

The selling is concentrated and severe in the market’s former leaders :

Nvidia (NVDA): The undisputed leader of the AI chip boom, its stock is plunging between 3.7% and 4.18%.
Palantir (PLTR): A high-flying AI name, its shares are collapsing 5.1% , part of a broader group of tech names down 4% to 6.5%. This follows an early warning sign last week when the stock sold off despite a strong “beat-and-raise” quarter, an indication of extreme valuation sensitivity.
Broadcom (AVGO): Another key AI-related chipmaker, its shares are falling 4.9% to 5.65%.
Alphabet (GOOG): The tech giant is down 2.28% to 2.5%.
Tesla (TSLA): The EV maker is down 2.3% to 4.0% , its decline exacerbated by reports of its China sales hitting a three-year low in October.

Adding significant weight to the negative sentiment is Walt Disney (DIS), a major Dow component. Its shares are plunging approximately 9% after the media giant reported worse-than-expected quarterly revenue, highlighting weakness in its linear TV division.

1.3 The “Great Divergence”: A Market Built on Sand

Today’s collapse is not a sudden illness but the fever spike from a severe, pre-existing condition: a historic and dangerous lack of market “breadth”. Breadth, or the number of stocks participating in a rally, has been “deteriorating” for weeks, a classic sign of an unhealthy and unstable uptrend.

While the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 was hitting new highs, the broader market was not participating. This created a “Great Divergence” :

The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which gives all 500 stocks an equal 0.2% weighting, was declining.
The S&P 500 Cap-Weight Index, which is heavily influenced by its largest members, was the only thing rising.

This divergence highlighted “high dispersion” and “crowding in the thin leadership”. The extent of this market concentration has become historic, creating a hollow foundation for the entire market:

Record Concentration: The “Magnificent 7” stocks now represent a record one-third of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization.
Top-Heavy: The largest 10 companies in the index account for 40% of its total value , levels well above the peaks of the 2000 dot-com bust. The top five alone represent 27%.
Valuation Gap: This “excitement surrounding AI” has pushed the cap-weighted S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to a massive 28% premium over the P/E of the equal-weighted index. Historically, these two indices have had similar P/E ratios.

The market was a skyscraper built on only seven pillars. The sell-off on November 13 is the moment investors realized that this “concentration risk” that provided all the upside is a two-way street, and it is now accelerating the downside.

The Data Fog: An Information Vacuum Spooks Wall Street

The most immediate and unusual catalyst for the market’s collapse is the end of the government shutdown. On November 12-13, 2025, President Trump signed a funding bill that concluded the record 43-day federal shutdown.

While this resolved a political stalemate, it perversely uncorked a far more dangerous source of market volatility: a fundamental information vacuum. The market has moved from a political uncertainty, which it historically weathers , to a fundamental one it cannot price.

2.1 “Flying Blind”: The Data That Went Missing

During the 43-day shutdown, federal agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were furloughed. This means they did not just delay reports; they failed to collect the data for the entire month of October.

The market is now grappling with the fact that crucial economic reports are not just delayed, but may be permanently lost.

The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was due to be released today (November 13), was not, and the data was never collected.
The October Jobs Report (originally scheduled for November 7) also was not collected.
The September Jobs Report, while fully “cooked” before the shutdown, also remains delayed, though it is expected to be released soon.

This has created a “fog of uncertainty”. The market is, in the words of one strategist, “flying blind”. All valuation models and Federal Reserve forecasts are now based on stale data from August and September.

Adding to the chaos, the White House has given conflicting statements. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the October CPI and jobs reports will “likely never” be released. On Thursday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett suggested a partial jobs report (number of jobs added, but not the unemployment rate) may be released at an unknown future date. This confusion has only amplified the market’s anxiety.

2.2 A Paralyzed Federal Reserve

This information blackout is terrifying investors for one primary reason: it neuters the Federal Reserve. The Fed is an explicitly “data-dependent” institution. The market’s entire rally to its October record highs was built, in part, on “expectations of continued rate reductions” from the Fed.

The data fog directly jeopardizes this assumption. Investors are now concerned that the lack of data will “prompt the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate cuts”. This is the market’s worst-case scenario: the reason for a rate cut (a slowing economy) is likely occurring, but the proof required for the Fed to act is missing.

This has triggered a rapid and painful repricing of risk. Traders have scaled back their expectations for a December rate cut from nearly 70% just a week ago to roughly 51-54%. This rapid removal of the market’s perceived “safety net” is a primary driver of the decline.

2.3 The Certain Economic Damage

Separate from the uncertainty of the data fog, the 43-day shutdown inflicted a certain and measurable negative impact on economic activity. Federal workers went without pay, 10,000 flights were cancelled, and food aid was disrupted.

Economic forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 are being slashed as a direct result:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that a six-week shutdown would reduce Q4 2025 annualized real GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points.
RBC revised its Q4 GDP forecast down to a mere 0.5% annualized growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also stated that Q4 growth will be lower than its 1.9% forecast.

Crucially, the CBO estimates that between $7 billion and $14 billion in economic activity from the shutdown will be permanently lost and not recovered in future quarters. Therefore, the market is not just reacting to ambiguity; it is also reacting to the certainty of a severe economic slowdown in Q4, which will directly impact corporate earnings.

The Burry Accelerant: Deconstructing “The Big Short’s” New Crusade

As the market’s fundamental and data-driven foundations began to crack, its psychological foundation was obliterated by one of Wall Street’s most notorious figures: Michael Burry. The investor, made famous for predicting the 2008 housing market crash, has re-emerged as a powerful bearish accelerant, providing a credible narrative for the tech-led collapse.

His actions in November 2025 have come in three distinct, escalating phases.

3.1 Phase 1: The Bet (The Q3 13F Filing)

In early November, Scion Asset Management’s Q3 2025 13F filing was released, disclosing positions held as of September 30. The filing revealed that Burry had taken new bearish put option positions against two of the AI boom’s biggest winners: Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR). This was a high-profile, contrarian bet against the market’s most celebrated and crowded trade.

3.2 Phase 2: The Accusation (The “Fraud” Thesis)

Burry did not just place a bet; he explained his reasoning in the most inflammatory terms possible. In a series of social media posts, he leveled a specific and explosive accusation: “accounting fraud” by the “hyperscalers”—the major cloud and AI infrastructure companies.

His specific allegation is that these companies (he named Meta, Oracle, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft) are “understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially”.

The Thesis: Burry argues that AI chips and servers, such as those from Nvidia, have a realistic useful life of only 2-3 years. He alleges these companies are booking them on their balance sheets with depreciation schedules of 5-6 years or more. For example, he claims Alphabet (Google) doubled the useful life of its network/compute assets to six years.
The Impact: This accounting “trick,” he claims, artificially boosts earnings by lowering the annual depreciation expense.
The Numbers: He estimates this practice will overstate earnings across the industry by $176 billion through 2028. He specifically claimed that by 2028, Oracle’s earnings would be overstated by 26.9% and Meta’s by 20.8%.

This accusation is the fundamental bomb that connects directly to the November 13 tech sell-off. The entire 2025 market rally was built on the “strong earnings” of these tech giants. Burry has provided a credible, data-driven argument that these foundational earnings are not just overvalued by the market, but potentially fraudulent.

3.3 Phase 3: The Exit (The Fund Closure)

The most bearish signal of all, however, was his final act. On November 13, it was confirmed by SEC filings that Scion Asset Management terminated its registration status with the SEC, effective November 10, 2025. This move signals he will no longer manage money for external clients.

His stated reason for this drastic move, confirmed in a letter to his investors, was explicit: “My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets”.

This is the second time in his career he has made such a move. He closed his first fund, Scion Capital, in 2008 after his famed “Big Short” bet against the housing market paid off. His decision to exit now is not just a “sell” recommendation; it is a declaration that he can no longer effectively deploy capital in a market he views as completely detached from fundamental reality. For the man famous for spotting the “Big Short,” this action is being interpreted by the market as his new “Big Short”—a bet that the entire market structure is irrational and on the verge of collapse.

Burry is not alone in his skepticism. Famed short-seller Jim Chanos, renowned for his investigations into Enron, has voiced similar concerns, stating that he is “worried that the immense spending on AI infrastructure might not generate sufficient economic returns”. This combined narrative from two of the market’s most prominent bears has given institutions a fundamental and psychological justification to sell, turning a frothy market into a panicked one.

Correction or Recession? Sifting Through the Economic Wreckage

The sudden convergence of a valuation collapse, an information vacuum, and a narrative crisis has forced the market to confront its biggest fear: recession. A “correction,” technically a 10% decline, now seems to be the best-case scenario. The market is suddenly pricing in the worst.

4.1 The Economic Baseline (Pre-Shutdown)

To assess the recession risk, it is essential to establish the economic baseline before the data blackout. The picture was already precarious and “stagflationary.”

Inflation: The most recent official data is for September 2025. It showed the annual inflation rate at 3.0%. While down from its post-pandemic peaks, this remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Real-time estimates from the Cleveland Fed “Nowcast” model suggest October and November inflation (had it been measured) would have remained elevated at 2.9-3.0%.
Labor Market: The official unemployment rate for August 2025 was 4.3%. More concerningly, payroll growth had slowed to a near-stall, at a mere +22,000 jobs. This indicates a “softer” and “slowing” job market, with “sluggish hiring”.

The pre-shutdown economy was already in a difficult bind: a slowing labor market combined with inflation that was cooling but not yet defeated.

4.2 The “Shadow” Data: Private Sector Reports Scream Recession

While the BLS was offline, private firms were not. The only significant labor market data available for October 2025 comes from the private outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The signals from this report are not just weak; they are at recession levels.

U.S. employers announced 153,000 job cuts in October 2025, a 183% increase from September. This was the worst October for layoffs since 2003.
Year-to-date in 2025, employers have announced 1.1 million layoffs. This figure is “on par with 2008 and 2009 job cuts during the Great Recession”.

This is the “smoking gun” for the recession argument. The official government data is missing , but the only available private “shadow” data is screaming that a severe contraction in the labor market, on par with the 2008 financial crisis, is underway. The stock market sell-off is the market’s violent, delayed reaction to this terrible private data, which is now the only “truth” available in the data fog.

4.3 The Failing Models

Prior to the shutdown’s full impact, major economic models already showed a high, but not certain, risk of recession.

J.P. Morgan: In May, the firm held its 2025 recession probability at 40%.
New York Fed: The NY Fed’s model, based on the Treasury yield curve, showed a 26.5% probability of a recession by October 2026.
Cleveland Fed: Their nowcast model predicted a 24% chance that the US economy was already in a recession in October 2025.

These models, however, are now obsolete. They are based on data inputs and economic relationships that are being violently distorted by the “data fog.” The Cleveland Fed itself noted the “newfound unreliability” of models in this historically unusual post-pandemic expansion. The true probability of recession is now both higher and unknowable. The market is selling off because it fears the “official” odds are dangerously underestimating the new reality, and that the Challenger, Gray & Christmas data is the real-time proof.

A Crisis of Confidence: Sentiment, Flows, and Final Synthesis

The confluence of these events has triggered a full-blown crisis of confidence. This is not just an institutional re-pricing; it is a sudden, sharp spike in fear that is evident across all market indicators.

5.1 The “Fear Gauge” Awakens

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the market’s “fear gauge,” is jumping. After a period of low volatility during the shutdown , the VIX is up 25% on the week to 21.82. On November 13, it has spiked over 9% to a level of 19.15 , while other measures show it at 18.50. This is a clear signal of rising investor fear and a rush to demand portfolio protection.

5.2 Retail Pessimism Hits Yearly Highs

The mood of the individual investor, who has been a primary driver of the market’s resilience, has collapsed. The latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey, released November 12, shows a massive and sudden shift to pessimism.

Bearish sentiment (expecting stocks to fall) spiked to 49.1%.
Bullish sentiment (expecting stocks to rise) fell to just 31.6%.

This is one of the most bearish readings of the entire year, indicating the retail optimism that defined the 2025 rally has finally broken.

5.3 The Great Divergence: Who is Selling to Whom?

A look beneath the surface at fund flows reveals the profoundly unstable structure that is now collapsing. For months, a “Great Divergence” has existed between institutional “smart money” and retail investors.

Institutional Outflows (The “Smart Money”): The “smart money” is actively selling. For the week ending November 5, long-term mutual funds saw estimated outflows of $17.77 billion. Equity funds alone experienced $20.85 billion in outflows. This indicates that institutional and long-term money is fleeing the market.
Retail Inflows (The “Dip Buyers”): In sharp contrast, retail investors have remained stubbornly bullish, displaying a “bullish conviction”. They have been “buying the dip” all year. Retail net purchases hit a record $155.3 billion in the first half of 2025, the largest inflow since 2014. As recently as October 10, one platform reported the “largest single-day call buying ever” from retail traders.

This is a classic, dangerous topping signal. Institutions have been “selling off” and appear to be using the retail “buy the dip” flows as exit liquidity. The current, sharp sell-off is the moment this large-scale institutional selling is beginning to overwhelm the retail buying, and the “dip” is turning into a correction.

5.4 Synthesis and Forward Outlook

The stock market is declining “so much” because it is the focal point of a perfect storm. These are not separate issues; they are one interconnected crisis of confidence.

The Valuation Foundation was weak, built on a narrow, overvalued, and concentrated tech rally.
The Economic Foundation was compromised by the certain GDP hit from the shutdown and the terrifying private layoff data.
The Policy Safety Net of a data-dependent Federal Reserve was removed by the “data fog,” just as recession fears spiked.
The Psychological Narrative that justified the rally was shattered by Michael Burry, who provided both a fundamental reason to doubt tech earnings (the “fraud” accusation) and a symbolic reason to panic (his “not in sync” fund closure).

This is not a “dip.” It is the start of a major correction. The recession question, previously dismissed, is now the market’s central, unanswerable fear. Volatility will remain high as investors await any scrap of data. The market’s current behavior is a rational, albeit panicked, response to a sudden and severe loss of fundamental visibility.

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‘I don’t understand this market’, Man who predicted 2008 crash exits markets again, https://www.financialexpress.com/business/investing-abroad-michael-burry-shuts-down-scion-asset-management-ends-external-fund-management-4042101/
Michael Burry’s Scion fund is deregistered, SEC filing shows, https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/us-stocks/michael-burrys-scion-fund-deregistered-sec-filing-shows
’Big Short’ Michael Burry de-registers Scion Asset Management, https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/big-short-micheal-burry-deregisters-scion-asset-management-4353912
Michael Burry – Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry
United States Inflation Rate – Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
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Inflation Nowcasting – Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
US markets tumble amid Wall Street concern over job losses and AI, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/06/us-stock-market-values-tumble-amid-reports-of-high-layoffs-and-hiring-freezes
What Is the Probability of a Recession? | J.P. Morgan Research, https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability
Making Sense of Recession Probabilities | St. Louis Fed, https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/may/making-sense-recession-probabilities
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread, https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/prob_rec.pdf
Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment, https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2025/ec-202513-forecasting-us-recessions-in-real-time-using-regional-economic-sentiment
Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0306
VIX Volatility Products – Cboe Global Markets, https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/
CBOE Volatility Index Historical Rates (VIX) – Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500-historical-data
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
US – AAII Investor Sentiment Survey – MacroMicro, https://en.macromicro.me/charts/20828/us-aaii-sentimentsurvey
Sentiment Survey Past Results | AAII, https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
Release: Estimated Long-Term Mutual Fund Flows | Investment Company Institute, https://www.ici.org/research/stats/flows
Equity FLASH Update – Citadel Securities, https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/equity-flash-update/
Retail Investors Driving Recent Bull Market – ARC Group, https://arc-group.com/retail-investors-recent-bull-market/

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